June 9, 2016
Donald Trump is even with Hillary Clinton in the key states of Florida and Pennsylvania. Or so you’ll hear. We have new polls from PPP in each state. The Pennsylvania version has Trump even or trailing by one, depending on inclusion of third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. In Florida, he leads by one or is tied, again depending on the quantity of choices.
This sure seems positive for him. The last Republican to win Pennsylvania was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Trump has argued he will compete better than any Republican in the past generation in this sort of Rust Belt state. Florida is a must for any GOP candidate, but after Mitt Romney and John McCain fell short the past two elections, being tied is still an upgrade.
Even better, PPP is a Democratic pollster. You wouldn’t think an organization that makes it’s income polling for Democratic candidates would have a bias in favor of Republicans. Their data shows Trump is holding strong because he’s pulling a higher percentage of his party than Hillary is of hers. Basically, not enough Berners are on board yet to put her ahead. Continue reading