2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Libertarians, 2016 Republicans, Poll Watch, State of the States, Uncategorized

Poll Watch: House Effects

June 9, 2016

Donald Trump is even with Hillary Clinton in the key states of Florida and Pennsylvania. Or so you’ll hear. We have new polls from PPP in each state. The Pennsylvania version has Trump even or trailing by one, depending on inclusion of third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. In Florida, he leads by one or is tied, again depending on the quantity of choices.

This sure seems positive for him. The last Republican to win Pennsylvania was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Trump has argued he will compete better than any Republican in the past generation in this sort of Rust Belt state. Florida is a must for any GOP candidate, but after Mitt Romney and John McCain fell short the past two elections, being tied is still an upgrade.

Even better, PPP is a Democratic pollster. You wouldn’t think an organization that makes it’s income polling for Democratic candidates would have a bias in favor of Republicans. Their data shows Trump is holding strong because he’s pulling a higher percentage of his party than Hillary is of hers. Basically, not enough Berners are on board yet to put her ahead. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Libertarians, 2016 Republicans, Poll Watch, State of the States, Uncategorized

Utah is Ready to Secede

June 7, 2016

Utah has had it. From coast to coast there are plenty of #NeverTrump, #NotHillary voters. National polling regularly shows a solid 15 to 20 percent of the voting populace with no desire to vote for either major party nominee, even when prodded to choose the lesser evil. This isn’t normal. By this stage, it’s usually easy to get 90% or more of voters to make a choice, even if it’s subject to change.

It’s as if the candidates have record low favorability ratings or something. Some states are pitching more of a fit than others. Monmouth surveyed New Jersey voters last week and found only 72% of them were capable of choosing Trump or Clinton. That was before offering any third party options. Throwing Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix, pulled away a few more voters (though not many-most of their support was from the angsty/angry 28%.) Continue reading

2016 Democrats, History, Iowa, New Hampshire, State of the States, Uncategorized

Making the California Primary Great Again

June 6, 2016

This year’s California primary was a bit of a tease. Bernie Sanders has contested it in full, spending virtually all of the last two weeks in the Golden State. He attended a Warriors game, ordered from In-N-Out Burger, even gave a quick stump speech to an outdoor spin class in Santa Monica. It was the Pacific version of going to the Iowa State Fair, or hitting up a bunch of diners in New Hampshire.

It’s fun having a presidential candidate in your state. Bernie has benefitted. If he wins tomorrow, this two week press will have greatly contributed. If he falls short, the tour will have closed the margin of defeat. He made enough progress to force the Clintons back to California, for reasons beyond raising money. Over the past several days, Hillary and Bill have held several events, though they’ve confined themselves to the couple/few largest media markets. Bernie was everywhere. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Republicans, History, State of the Race, State of the States, Uncategorized

The First National Election in Decades

May 26, 2016

We think of presidential elections as a national event, but they’re not. The Electoral College means each state separately chooses whom to support. Once upon a time, many states were competitive. In 1976, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford were within 5 points of each other in 20 states. Another 11 were closer than 8 points. That gave them plenty of campaigning options.

It’s normal to have blue states and red states. The extent to which we can assume many states are not up for grabs in a competitive election is not. Barack Obama’s margin over Mitt Romney in 2012 was only a couple points more than Carter-Ford. But only 4 states were decided by less than 5 points, another 8 by less than 8.

We’ve become used to thinking about a few key states. If Democrats can take Florida or Ohio from the Republicans, they’ll probably win. If Republicans can hold those and take Pennsylvania, they’re likely celebrating on election night. Places like Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire are considered competitive. That’s about the list. Maybe add Nevada. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, Poll Watch, State of the States, Uncategorized

California Poll Watch: Looking Golden for Trump

April 25, 2016

In case you’re wondering why we care about California polls a full 6 weeks and several states before the actual vote, it’s the delegate thing. About 10 days ago, it seemed unlikely Donald Trump could reach the full 1237 delegates by the end of primary voting. He might get relatively close, he might scare up enough to win on the first ballot, but his team would have work to do between June 7 and Cleveland.

Then Trump beat the estimates in New York., with Cruz doing worse than expected. Then we saw poll numbers from the April 26 states indicating more of the (mostly) same. The Donald is even ahead in Indiana, a place #NeverTrump absolutely needs to stop him. A strong performance in most of California’s 53 congressional districts (where 159 of 172 delegates are being allocated) and 1237 is a real thing. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Republicans, Predictions, State of the States, Uncategorized

April Fools Year

April 1, 2016

Pretend it was April 1, 2015 and someone told you the following would occur over the next year:

Bernie Sanders would raise over $100 million in a single quarter from small donations.

Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio would combine to win one state.*

PAC money wouldn’t matter.

Speaker Paul Ryan.

Hillary Clinton would have 147 FBI agents investigating her, but remain the presumptive nominee.

You’ll notice none of the above included the word Trump, though he had a lot to a little to do with each. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, State of the Race, State of the States, Uncategorized

Dealing With Chaos

March 12, 2016

As usual, it’s all about Donald Trump. We figured he would control the news between the final debate and voting on March 15. The only question was how and with what?

We got our answer yesterday when MoveOn.org and other protestors were able to shut down a Trump rally at the University of Illinois, Chicago.

This was a long time coming. Trump elicits strong feelings (to put it mildly) in much of the citizenry, and it’s easy to get a ticket to one of his events. To ensure a packed house, they regularly issue far more tickets than seats.

This leaves plenty of Trump fans waiting outside. It creates the potential for a face-off with protestors on the street and conflict inside the building. Continue reading