2016 Democrats, South Carolina, State of the Race, Uncategorized

South Carolina Recap (D): Now That’s a Firewall

February 28, 2016

You may recall your intrepid correspondent questioning Hillary Clinton’s decision to go all in on South Carolina at the risk of losing Nevada. A day or two before the Silver State caucused, it seemed like she took a questionable risk.

Bernie Sanders had pulled approximately (as best as we could tell with sketchy data) even with her, and a win would completely change the trajectory of the contest. As it turns out, Hillary was in the middle of a 48 hour sprint to the finish line. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, Predictions, South Carolina, Uncategorized

Forecasting South Carolina: Final Prediction (D)

February 27, 2016

With the fun over on the GOP side, you might have forgotten the Democrats vote in South Carolina today. Before Nevada, some observers wondered if Bernie Sanders could pull an upset in the Palmetto State. At the risk of giving away too much too soon, that’s out of the question.

Not only did Bernie fail to pull even, his best poll result was -19 in a CBS/YouGov survey taken immediately after New Hampshire. They use Internet polling, which tends to favor Bernie and Donald Trump. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, March 1, Poll Watch, South Carolina, Uncategorized

Where Are Bernie’s Voters Hiding?

February 25, 2016

Apparently South Carolina has either extinguished the Bern or never felt it in the first place. Other SEC Super Tuesday states are looking extremely unhospitable. A recent Georgia poll has Hillary up 50 plus. Of the next 20 states to vote, Bernie is leading in 2.

Some of that is old data. A few states were last surveyed in 2015. Others not since people actually started voting. Still, aside from an epic lead in Vermont and pretty decent polling in Massachusetts, he’s not ahead anywhere that votes soon. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, Requiem for a Candidate, South Carolina, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Requiem for a Candidate: Jeb Bush

February 22, 2016

Saturday marked at least a temporary halt of the Bush political dynasty. Beginning with Senator Prescott Bush of Connecticut, continuing with his son President George H.W. Bush, grandson President George W. Bush, and his other grandson Jeb, it once appeared a record three presidents could sprout from the family tree.

Journalists had their political obituaries ready to post as soon as Jeb withdrew from the race. We’ve heard how the campaign miscalculated and wasted $150 million. We’ve contemplated the reluctance of the electorate to pick an insider candidate. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, South Carolina, State of the Race, Uncategorized

South Carolina Preview (D): On the Margin

February 21, 2016

Yesterday, Hillary Clinton shifted the burden back on to her challenger. I can’t emphasize enough how different the campaign would feel if he won by any margin instead of losing by 5%.

Bernie Sanders¬†did well enough to keep people talking about the race, but he’s facing three elimination points. I don’t mean he’d exit the race, but it would become mathematically impossible for him to get nominated. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, South Carolina, State of the Race, Uncategorized

South Carolina Recap (GOP): Three’s Company

February 21, 2016

Donald Trump is not a fluke. You probably already knew/accepted this, but finishing a close second in Iowa, winning New Hampshire by more than a 2 to 1 margin over the second place finisher, and taking South Carolina by 10 points is a big deal.

This trio of early contests has framed the GOP nomination race since 1980. Leaving incumbents aside, nobody has done better in the first three. Nobody. Not Ronald Reagan, who did almost as well. Not George H.W. Bush, who did worse. Not George W. Bush, who did worse. Continue reading