2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Republicans, Predictions, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Forecasting Oregon: Final Prediction

May 17, 2016

For months I’d assumed Bernie had Oregon in the bag. It’s a Sanders state. It’s liberal, people drive Subarus, pot is accessible. He’s won anywhere similar. Usually only one or two of those three factors are necessary.

He won New Hampshire, Vermont, Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, and Wisconsin. Oregon belongs in this group. Bernie has drawn huge crowds in Portland and around college campuses statewide. When he was building momentum last fall, Oregon was an important stop.

Fully aware Oregon is a closed primary (Bernie’s Kryptonite), I still figured he’d win. Until recently, we had no data one way or the other. Absence of polling didn’t prevent good predictions in several of those similar states.  Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, Predictions, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Forecasting Kentucky: Final Prediction (D)

May 17, 2016

Good morning and welcome to one of the final primary days of the 2016 presidential season. Depending on how things go for Bernie Sanders, it might be the final time we do forecasts.

Without at least some assistance from the FBI, Bernie won’t be the nominee. He can’t catch up in earned delegates and isn’t going to flip a bunch of super delegates. Today he fights for the right to run strong to the finish line and make Hillary Clinton fight for California.

That’s of no small value. He still has a platform, even if he lacks adequate remaining media interest.  Ted Cruz has quickly vaporized over the last couple weeks. He’ll need to execute any rules or platform committee strategies at the convention without much clout. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Republicans, Counting Delegates, Predictions, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Forecasting West Virginia: Final Prediction

May 10, 2016

At some point, we may skip taking a look at each remaining primary. Donald Trump is running unopposed and Hillary Clinton has math firmly on her side. Bernie could win out and still fall well short of the nomination. But we do still have things to learn. West Virginia can help us answer a couple of useful questions.

How badly do Democrats want to keep Bernie going?

Can Trump win over a certain type of Sanders voter?

If we’ve identified any momentum in the Democratic race it’s that Bernie does better than expected when it looks like he’s eliminated/about to get eliminated, but Hillary does a little better when a defeat would cause her real problems. It’s as though voters are deciding they want him around but prefer her as the nominee. Continue reading

2016 General Election, 2016 Republicans, Predictions, State of the Race, Trump, Uncategorized

Forecasting Nebraska: Final Prediction (R)

May 10, 2016

I’ll forgive you if the results of the Nebraska Republican Primary aren’t at the top of your mind. Donald Trump is the GOP nominee and he’s going to win Nebraska. It is worth wondering about the margin. Trump has an uphill battle to win the general election.

The Obama coalition is a majority of American voters. He won over 50% in both 2008 and 2012, and demographic trends mean this collection is an even larger percentage of Americans now. Mitt Romney won 93% of registered Republicans in 2012 and still fell short.

Not all groups turn out equally. In 2012, from most to least likely, the electorate broke down like this: Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Indiana: Final Prediction

May 3, 2016

Welcome to Ted’s Last Stand. Everyone seems to realize he must win to keep his chances alive. Even winning might not get it done. Just under half the delegates go to the statewide champ. The others are winner-take-all by congressional district. Unlike some of the recent primaries, there is no need to reach 50% to grab the full haul.

Even if Cruz pulls an upset and comes out ahead statewide, as David Wasserman explains, he may lose the majority of districts. Ted looks strongest in the 5th district, the northern suburbs of Indianapolis, where Mitt Romney got a large proportion of his Indiana votes in 2012. He could win the state by dominating this heavily Republican district, while Trump takes many of the other 8.

While a victory would keep him going, Cruz needs to win almost all of the delegates to prevent Trump from reaching 1237, not just his fair share. Late polls are breaking against him. The two most recent surveys have him trailing by 15 and 17 points respectively. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Pennsylvania: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

What. A. Mess. Donald Trump is going to win. Hillary Clinton probably will too. There’s plenty of intrigue and confusion to unpack though. Does Trump clear 50%? He might. Before New York, polls had him in the low to mid 40s. The three taken after show him right around 50.

The whole Trump is just getting a plurality, not a majority argument fades a bit if he clears 50% in all five states today. Though the Keystone State isn’t anti-Trump, it wasn’t showing as a particularly strong location for him for most of the past several months. He didn’t break 30% until early March, 40% until the end of March.

If you are arguing that all but #NeverTrump are coming around to accepting a Trump nomination, if tonight’s results match the most recent polls, it’s convincing evidence. Indiana is more Cruz-friendly than Pennsylvania, but not that, that much. If Trump gets a majority here, Ted has some hearts and minds to change quickly in the Hoosier State. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Maryland: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

Maryland is not a Donald Trump state. It’s neutral at best for him. He’s going to win. The question is by how much. If he gets near or above 50% it’s a very bad sign for anyone trying to stop the runaway train. Before New York, he was in the mid 40s. The one post-NY poll from Gravis Marketing has him at 54%.

If he winds up anywhere near there, it means voters would need to have a change of heart once tonight makes his nomination seem virtually imminent in order to stop him.  Having Cruz and Kasich strategize, ally, move tactically in any way only matters if Trump isn’t clearing 40% by much in a state that doesn’t favor him.

A strong result would validate polls showing Trump near 50% in California. That’s another neutral-at-best state for The Donald where surveys indicate it doesn’t matter what Cruz and Kasich try to do. Any #Never Trump plan requires three important elements. Continue reading