May 17, 2016
For months I’d assumed Bernie had Oregon in the bag. It’s a Sanders state. It’s liberal, people drive Subarus, pot is accessible. He’s won anywhere similar. Usually only one or two of those three factors are necessary.
He won New Hampshire, Vermont, Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, and Wisconsin. Oregon belongs in this group. Bernie has drawn huge crowds in Portland and around college campuses statewide. When he was building momentum last fall, Oregon was an important stop.
Fully aware Oregon is a closed primary (Bernie’s Kryptonite), I still figured he’d win. Until recently, we had no data one way or the other. Absence of polling didn’t prevent good predictions in several of those similar states. Continue reading