2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, New York, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Your Guide to the Rest of the GOP Primaries

April 20, 2016

I seem to remember everyone talking about Ted Cruz having momentum. I think I recall many assuming the convention would go to a second ballot, if not a third, fourth or fifth. How quickly things change. Or do they?

It’s fun to get caught up in the twists and turns of the race. It feels like things are constantly evolving. We want to believe individual decisions, outcomes of particular primaries or caucuses, perhaps an ad here or there have made a big difference.

I’m not saying it absolutely doesn’t matter what anyone does, but the contest got awfully locked in months ago and appears about where it always was. The same is true on the Democratic side. Sanders wins where he should and loses where he should. Neither he nor Hillary have won over many voters who leaned towards the other. Continue reading

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2016 Democrats, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, New York, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Bye Bye Bernie

April 20, 2016

It’s over. Bernie Sanders gave it a good ride, but ultimately couldn’t recover from falling short in Nevada. Way back in January, I figured he needed to sweep the first three contests to have a good chance at an upset. The tie in Iowa was close enough, but he really needed Nevada.

Hillary Clinton is not a strong candidate. But she is clutch. Each time she needed to win to avoid real trouble, she did. Many of these wins were close. Massachusetts on the first Super Tuesday. Missouri and Illinois on March 15. The only real missed opportunity was Michigan.

A Hillary win there and the conversation would have ended sooner. Bernie’s upset carried the race forward and led all of us to wonder whether the polls in New York would hold up. They did. Clinton finished slightly ahead of her final poll average. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, Counting Delegates, New York, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting New York: Final Prediction

April 19, 2016

Donald Trump is going to win. By a lot. You already knew that. We still have several things to figure out. How close does he get to sweeping the 95 available delegates? Does Ted Cruz finish third behind John Kasich? Perhaps most importantly, can Bernie upset Hillary after trailing in every poll?

Let’s start on the GOP side: Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, New York, Poll Watch, Uncategorized

New York Poll Watch: No News is Good News for Clinton and Trump

April 18, 2016

We’re now less than 24 hours from voters going to the polls in the Empire State. Unless we see a sudden shift in a survey released at the last minute, there is zero evidence the race is moving. The polls released in the past 72 hours clearly indicate absolute and total stasis.

If you’re Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, that’s great news. If you’re John Kasich, perhaps at least not bad news. For Ted Cruz, and especially Bernie Sanders, this is extremely sub-optimal.

The campaigns are apparently believing what we’re seeing here. The Trump campaign expects to win the vast majority, if not all of New York’s 95 GOP delegates. He’s sitting at 52.6% in the Real Clear Politics average. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, New York, State of the Race, Strategy, Trump, Uncategorized

#HopefullyNotCruz is Sinking #NeverTrump

April 17, 2016

Last Sunday we took a look at the #NeverTrump crowd. The question was if they really meant it. Was it #NeverTrump, or let’s try to stop Trump, and hey if we could avoid Cruz too, that might be really great?

The anti-Trump forces rallied behind Cruz in Utah. Simple choice. With the support of popular Senator Mike Lee, and the absence of Marco Rubio, Cruz was the consensus choice there. It was a caucus. Whether or not they did anything, Ted was likely to win.

By participating, they could increase the odds Cruz would break 50%, denying Trump any delegates. Any operatives involved in the effort could show their investors they got results. All of the various #NeverTrump factions and motivations were aligned. Cruz was supposed to do well there anyway. Helping him win wouldn’t make him an unstoppable nominee. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, In the World, New York, Strategy, Uncategorized

Five Minutes With the Pope

April 16, 2016

Bernie Sanders got his meeting. It was touch and go for a while. Pope Francis was unable to meet with any of the conference attendees on Friday and was leaving today for Greece. It appeared Bernie flew across the Atlantic to give a truncated version of his usual speech to a new audience who can’t vote for him.

Deliverance came in the form of a five minute chat with the pontiff this morning. Now ┬áhe can fly home having checked all the boxes on his list. If Bernie falls just short in New York, some will point to this excursion as the culprit. Normally you don’t duck out on campaigning in a must-win state the weekend before the vote. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, New York, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Is Cruz Making Enough Progress?

April 15, 2016

We know Ted Cruz is doing well at delegate harvesting. He doesn’t need to gloat about his successes in Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming and elsewhere. Donald Trump’s discomfort is more than enough to confirm the results. Whether you think the process is fair or foul, Cruz is mastering it, Trump fumbling.

More analysts than not think Trump will fall at least a little short of earning the magic 1237 delegates by the end of primary voting on June 7. Those same thinkers and pundits figure Cruz has a decisive edge on a second or third or fourth ballot at the convention.

The Donald hasn’t won anywhere since Arizona on March 22. He’s leading big in New York, but it’s his home state. Reviewing this combination of thoughts and events can easily convince you Cruz is making progress. He won Wisconsin by double digits. John Kasich is still floundering. Paul Ryan just said no way, no how. Continue reading