2016 Republicans, History, New Hampshire, Uncategorized

Worst Presidential Debate Choke Ever?

February 7, 2016

We won’t know for sure until the voters have their say, but it’s possible Marco Rubio just had the most significant presidential debate choke in American history.  These are hard things to measure (though I’ll try), and less than 24 hours from the event it’s hard to have proper perspective.

Still, it’s potentially the perfect choke.  There are a few components necessary to create such an epic mistake: Continue reading

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2016 Republicans, Debates, New Hampshire, Uncategorized

Debate Recap: Governor’s Ball

February 6, 2016

That was a costly few minutes for Marco Rubio.  How costly?  If he’d answered Chris Christie very effectively, he could have put himself in position to finish a very close second at worst, with a great chance of winning South Carolina after.  Now it looks like there’s a reason to keep a governor or two around for a while.

Time for the rundown on who won, who lost and who stayed in place: Continue reading

2016 Republicans, New Hampshire, Poll Watch, Uncategorized

NH Poll Watch: Episode 4 (The Rubio Factor)

February 6, 2016

Over the past couple/few days, we’ve covered where the individual GOP candidates stand in New Hampshire.  More tracking polls hit this morning.  None show any dramatic changes in the lineup.

If the primary were today and the consensus numbers are accurate, Donald Trump would win.  Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Ted Cruz would have a solid shot at second. Jeb Bush would find himself ticketed for fifth with a slight chance of outperforming, and Chris Christie would battle Carly Fiorina for sixth.

Of course, there’s the small matter of the debate in between.  Beyond that, there are plenty of undecided Granite Staters.  It’s time to take a look at the size of various voter pools the candidates will attempt to tap by Tuesday.

While it’s hard to imagine a voter choosing between Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush, there are plenty of overlapping possibilities.  Many of them involve Marco Rubio. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, Debates, New Hampshire, Uncategorized

Debate Preview: Verbal Roller Derby

February 6, 2016

There’s no way it doesn’t get a little nasty on stage this evening.  If you want to see a few pre-Super Bowl hits, tune in to ABC at 8pm (Eastern).  Donald Trump is back and knows he needs to close strong.  Marco Rubio has a whole pack of governors trying to chop him down.  Ben Carson is more than miffed at Ted Cruz.

Here’s my friendly advice to the crew: Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, New Hampshire, Poll Watch, Uncategorized

Can Bernie and The Donald Hold On?

February 6, 2016

Three days to go in New Hampshire.  As of the time of this writing, Bernie leads Hillary by 17.6% in the Real Clear Politics average.  Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio by 16.0%.  Very similar.  Yet, FiveThirtyEight figures Bernie is a 99% certainty to win on Tuesday, while The Donald is only a 63% favorite.

Trump has led in every post-Iowa poll.  So has Bernie.  Both lead going back multiple weeks.  However, while Hillary pulled even at one point, and led in several polls in the fall, Trump has remained the undisputed polling champion of the Granite State since July.

If there’s a major Iowa-related problem for Trump, it’s not showing in the polling.  He’s holding mostly steady.  Bernie is holding up overall, but the UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll had him up 31 on the eve of Iowa.  Today the gap is 15.

So why are Bernie’s odds better? Continue reading

2016 Democrats, Debates, New Hampshire, Uncategorized

Debate Recap: Hillary Rallies

February 5, 2016

Even Hillary Clinton’s strongest detractors acknowledge she doesn’t back down easily.  The first 20-30 minutes were intense even by her standards.  Perhaps it was just the way the cameras were angled, but I can’t remember one candidate staring down another like this.

Back in 2000, Al Gore got in trouble for sighing loudly as George W. Bush spoke.  There were no audible noises here, but it looked like Hillary wanted to Bern a hole through Sanders’ skull.  Not sure if this was her game face, or if her mask that claims she’s ok with an extended campaign dropped, to reveal Hillary’s true feelings about being locked in a battle with Larry David.

At first it seemed she was coming in too hard, like a plane that fails to decelerate enough before hitting the runway.  I was mentally composing my recap, wondering if Hillary was the least likeable politician in human history or just the least in the modern era.

And then she broke him. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, New Hampshire, South Carolina, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Dr. Carson & Mr. Cruz

February 5, 2016

If Ted Cruz falls short in his quest to win the 2016 GOP nomination, we can point to his campaign’s attempt to take advantage of a CNN report to drive Ben Carson voters to them during the Iowa Caucus as the trigger point for his demise.  This isn’t to say he can’t win or would have easily won otherwise.  But he’s kicked up a hornet’s nest. Continue reading