2016 Republicans, Nevada, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Nevada Recap (GOP): Viva Trump!

February 24, 2016

The Donald won big. Commentators are now positive he has the nomination locked up. He’s unmistakably in great shape. Let’s wait another 7 days or so before we give him the big trophy.

As in South Carolina, Trump won across the board. Entrance polls indicate Marco Rubio may have bested him with the 7% of the caucus electorate between 18 and 29 years of age. Otherwise it was a clean sweep.

After declaring for months “the Hispanics love me,” Trump accepted a giant bear hug from Nevada Latinos. He apparently got just as much support from them as the white voters who are supposed to prefer him. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, March 1, Nevada, Strategy, Uncategorized

How Not to Fire a Key Staffer

February 23, 2016

Yesterday, Ted Cruz cut Communications Director Rick Tyler loose. This was a mistake. The official reason had something to do with Tyler posting video that falsely showed Marco Rubio disparaging the bible.

This was about the 50th worst thing the Cruz campaign has done in the past 50 days. At most. Tyler didn’t create the video, he merely distributed it. Donald Trump retweets comments from white supremacists. This is nothing. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, Nevada, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Nevada: Final Prediction (GOP)

February 23, 2016

Polls are my friend so far. Trying to outsmart them leads to embarrassment, or at a minimum being wrong. Before the Democrats voted, poll evidence, scant as it was, gave Hillary a slight advantage.

Yet I picked Bernie to win by a couple points. Hillary was planning on leaving town soon after the vote. She’d pushed most of her resources and talking points towards South Carolina. Team Sanders was feeling pretty confident. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, Nevada, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Nevada Preview (GOP): Three Ring Circus

February 21, 2016

One of Donald Trump’s advisors thinks this is a one candidate race. Ted Cruz says it’s a two person contest. Marco Rubio believes there are three finalists. John Kasich tell us there’s room for four. Ben Carson is sticking around.

We can safely dismiss Carson as a competitor, both in Nevada and for the nomination. He finished the first three states just shy of 20 percent. Combined. Until Kasich wins Massachusetts, Vermont or Michigan (something polls aren’t indicating yet), he’s a curiosity at most.

The top 3 candidates should pull at least 85, possibly 90 percent of the Nevada caucus vote. It’s as close a preview as we could hope for prior to Super Tuesday. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, Nevada, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Nevada Recap (D): The Empire Strikes Back

February 20, 2016

I was wrong. Not only did Hillary win, but it was by enough of a margin that you can’t call this a tie. Nor is it a moral victory for the Sanders campaign. At the time of writing, we don’t know how the national convention delegates are being allocated.

There’s a chance Bernie winds up about even on those, but he didn’t rack up large enough margins in the rural counties to do a lose the vote, win the delegates thing like Barack Obama in 2008.

The gap was large enough that you can’t explain it by arguing Bernie had more voters, but the delegate equivalent calculation process gave Hillary a win like in Iowa. There were a few interesting registration decisions at least one of the Las┬áVegas casino locations. Not close enough to matter. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, Nevada, South Carolina, Uncategorized

Spinning Nevada (Democrats)

February 19, 2016

Two contests tomorrow. The vote and the spin. With Hillary’s huge super delegate lead, Bernie needs every regular delegate too, but perceptions are more important than whether he picks up an extra couple convention delegates on the ground.

In Iowa, Clinton seized the initiative and declared provisional victory before the count was done. Bernie got credit for coming close, but she was successful in claiming the disappointment of 2008 was erased.

New Hampshire was too much of a landslide to spin. Her only out was to claim it didn’t matter because it was too close to Vermont and the voters were too white, but losing a state you won in 2008 by 22 points is a big loss. Continue reading