2016 Democrats, March 15, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Turn out the Lights, the Party’s Over

March 16, 2016

Bernie Sanders will continue forward. He has every reason to. He has money and a movement. His success has pushed Hillary Clinton way further in his ideological direction than anyone could have imagined a year ago.

He will win several more contests. Of states voting between now and April 19, only Arizona is a semi-decent bet for Hillary. If Clinton falls short in November, a candidate will pick up Bernie’s torch and become an instant top-tier contender in 2020.

But the nomination contest, barring intervention from the FBI, an indictment, or a health issue, is now over. Continue reading

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2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 15, Predictions, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Forecasting Illinois: Final Prediction

March 15, 2016

We saved the most interesting state for last. Any number of interesting things can happen on the Republican side. Trump is sitting with a poll average that is beatable, but not easily.

However, the majority of delegates are allocated by congressional district. His two main opponents are strong in different parts of the state. There’s a scenario where The Donald wins Illinois, but not anywhere near the majority of delegates.

Meanwhile, Bernie has reversed a massive pre-Michigan deficit to lead a recent poll and hold very close in a few others. One, from McKeon & Associates, has Undecided leading both Hillary (31%) and Bernie (30%).

Betting markets are showing a total toss-up. FiveThirtyEight favors Clinton. And us? Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 15, Predictions, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Forecasting Ohio: Final Prediction

March 15, 2016

Two potentially close contests, with candidacies hanging in the balance. Ohio will determine whether their governor continues campaigning or is forced home to serve out the balance of his term.

Depending on how Illinois votes, Ohio could put Hillary on the extreme defensive if it becomes the third Sanders victory of the evening. A few days ago, polls had Clinton up by Michigan-sized margins.

She’s still ahead in every poll, but it’s closer now. Closer than Michigan was. You know the Clinton campaign is at least as curious as we are. They definitely didn’t go to sleep feeling overly sure of themselves.

Enough stalling. On to the show. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 15, Predictions, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Forecasting Missouri: Final Prediction

March 15, 2016

Less Data = More Fun. Anyone can make a pick with lots of data. There are no fewer than 18 semi-recent GOP polls in Florida. If you want to see a boring forecast, click here. North Carolina has a bit more uncertainty. For a semi-interesting forecast, click here.

But Missouri is fun. Three polls in 2016 on the Democratic side, one for the Republicans. Trump ahead by 7 in that one, Bernie up by 1 in the most recent survey on his side, with Hillary having led by 7  and 4 in the previous two.

Betting markets are feeling the Bern by a 2 to 1 rate. FiveThirtyEight narrowly favors Hillary. Bettors narrowly favor Trump, while FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have enough data to weigh in. Where data stops, we start. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, March 15, Predictions, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Forecasting Florida: Final Prediction

March 15, 2016

Florida has a number of things in common with North Carolina. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are favored in both. Bernie Sanders is trying to close the likely delegate gap in both.

The difference is on the GOP challenger side. There, Ted Cruz has some upside, here Marco Rubio is trying to salvage his political future. Will The Donald still have Rubio to kick around after today? Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 15, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting North Carolina: Final Prediction

March 15, 2016

It’s prediction time again. We begin in the Tar Heel state, where Bernie Sanders is trying to minimize his delegate loss to Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz is attempting to sneak up on Donald Trump.

Do we have an upset on the GOP side? Will Bernie avoid another huge loss in a Southern state? For these answers and more, proceed to the details. Continue reading