2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 1, Poll Watch, Uncategorized

A Super Tuesday for Pollsters and Data People

March 2, 2016

There were 22 contests (11 Democratic contests, 11 Republican) yesterday if you don’t count whatever the GOP was up to in Wyoming. No surprises. None. Sure, Ted Cruz did a little better than expected, Marco Rubio a little worse.

If everything was exactly what everyone figured, no need to waste money with the actual voting. But this was very, very close. There was one ludicrous Democratic survey in Minnesota last month. Otherwise, even the states with very limited data usually had the right clues.

Let’s take a quick tour of the map: Continue reading

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2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 1, State of the Race, Uncategorized

A Few Super Tuesday Thoughts

March 1, 2016

Some actual analysis tomorrow, but for now, several thoughts come to mind:

Bernie did relatively well but is mathematically eliminated, however that’s not necessarily as good for Hillary as it sounds.

More on this later, but she racked up such large margins in Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and Virginia, that Bernie literally can’t catch up among earned delegates, even if he exceeds expectations for the rest of the race. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 1, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Tennessee: Final Prediction

March 1, 2016

This was the dog that didn’t bark. Bernie Sanders never got close to Hillary Clinton. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio never challenged Donald Trump. I (and a few others) expected a very competitive Tennessee primary on both sides.

Rubio had some upscale suburbs to target. Cruz had plenty of evangelicals. Sanders had Democrats who don’t easily fall in line. It’s hard to measure exactly what each campaign is doing strategically. All these states are voting at once.

It feels like both Rubio and Sanders could have done more to make this interesting before Trump and Hillary had the state locked down. Cruz did make an effort, but it didn’t seem to work real well, so who knows.

On to the picks: Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 1, Poll Watch, Uncategorized

Forecasting Alabama: Final Prediction

March 1, 2016

In the fall, Donald Trump journeyed to Mobile, Alabama and filled most of a football stadium. The estimated 35,000 crowd remains the largest to see a Trump event so far. At the time, this was a curiosity of sorts.

When Trump laps the field today, it will show that was a precursor, not an outlier. Meanwhile, Hillary has this one well in hand. Of all the states, this is probably the highest Trump + Hillary total.

Not a ton to discuss here, but a couple of details to follow: Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 1, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Arkansas: Final Prediction

March 1, 2016

If Ted Cruz is going to make this an interesting day, he’s going to win Arkansas. This is the one state outside of Texas where he’s lead a February poll. Can he grab a victory?

Less drama on the Democrats’ side. The former First Lady of Arkansas is not going to lose her former stomping grounds. However, the margin looks way closer than Vermont.

On to the considerable speculation: Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 1, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Texas: Final Prediction

March 1, 2016

Everything’s bigger in Texas and so is the delegate pool. For a time in January and early February, Ted Cruz had visions of breaking 50% and taking the vast, vast majority of them. Marco Rubio needs to clear 20% to win statewide delegates. It’s going to be close.

Hillary has Bernie taken care of here, but he’s pushing to make the delegate gap as small as possible. He did recent rallies in Austin and Dallas to that end.

Where does everyone land? Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 1, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Massachusetts: Final Prediction

March 1, 2016

Bernie had this one ten days ago. He doesn’t now. Hillary leads in the more recent polls. It’s a perception problem for him. Next door to New Hampshire and Vermont, full of white people, many think he should dominate here.

Instead he’s going to lose. Not all New England states are identical. This is New Hampshire with a heavy dose of Northern Virginia, and a bit of Rhode Island. Bernie did need this to stay anywhere near a winning pace, but a loss isn’t quite the rebuke it seems.

Meanwhile, this is all about The Donald. The Rubio/Kasich battle for second is somewhat interesting. If they combine to match Trump’s total, that counts as momentum for them. Continue reading