2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Republicans, Iowa, Poll Watch, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Poll Watch: Iowa Signals Trouble for Hillary

July 12, 2016

Let’s begin with my normal warning not to read too much in to any one survey. Let’s remember the election is still four months away, that neither major party nominee has chosen their VP, nor held their convention. The electorate saw their summer slumber interrupted by the killings in Baton Rouge, St. Paul, and Dallas last week.

Between those brutal events, the FBI decision to pass on pushing for indictment of Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump being himself, there’s plenty for a voter to process.  However, we have very limited polling over the past week, with the most recent national surveys being pre-Dallas, and before the full impact of James Comey’s takedown sans indictment of Clinton. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, History, Iowa, New Hampshire, State of the States, Uncategorized

Making the California Primary Great Again

June 6, 2016

This year’s California primary was a bit of a tease. Bernie Sanders has contested it in full, spending virtually all of the last two weeks in the Golden State. He attended a Warriors game, ordered from In-N-Out Burger, even gave a quick stump speech to an outdoor spin class in Santa Monica. It was the Pacific version of going to the Iowa State Fair, or hitting up a bunch of diners in New Hampshire.

It’s fun having a presidential candidate in your state. Bernie has benefitted. If he wins tomorrow, this two week press will have greatly contributed. If he falls short, the tour will have closed the margin of defeat. He made enough progress to force the Clintons back to California, for reasons beyond raising money. Over the past several days, Hillary and Bill have held several events, though they’ve confined themselves to the couple/few largest media markets. Bernie was everywhere. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, History, Iowa, Poll Watch, Uncategorized

In Defense of Iowa Pollsters

February 2, 2016

Donald Trump lead every Iowa poll for the final two weeks of the race.  Donald Trump did not win Iowa.  Ergo, polls suck.

J. Ann Selzer’s Iowa Poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg, is considered the gold standard.  Everyone fawns over her and her data.  Selzer’s final poll had Marco Rubio a distant third at 15 percent, with just over half of Trump’s support.  Marco almost caught him at the finish line.  Ergo, polls suck.

Not a single poll had Hillary and Bernie in a dead heat.  Hillary was 4 ahead in the final Real Clear Politics average.  CNN had Bernie up 8, Loras College had Hillary up 29!  Ergo, polls suck. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, Iowa, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Iowa Dem Recap: Fit to be Tied

February 2, 2016

Usually coin flips are only important in football.  A couple weeks ago, a miraculous Aaron Rodgers comeback was undone by a coin.  First it wouldn’t flip.  Then it did.  In favor of the Arizona Cardinals.  They got the overtime kickoff, then drove for the winning touchdown.  Rodgers was left to watch from the bench.

Hillary Clinton won 701 state delegate equivalents.  Bernie Sanders won 697.  When you see the final percentage tally:

Clinton 49.9%

Sanders 49.6%

This is what they are referring to.  It is not the raw total of voters who chose each candidate at each precinct.  The Sanders campaign is asking for the release of the actual supporter totals, which they believe will show they actually had more people line up for them last night. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, Iowa, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Iowa GOP Recap: The Long March

February 2, 2016

If you are hoping for an extended GOP campaign, you got the result you wanted.  Each of the three leading candidates have something to brag about and something to worry about.  While Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are enjoying their flights to New Hampshire, they still trail Donald Trump in the upcoming states.

We now know many people went to Trump events and then voted for someone else.  While Cruz and Rubio outperformed their poll averages, he fell short of his.  For the next couple days, we’ll hear all about the wounded Donald.  But he still won more Iowa caucus votes than any candidate in GOP history except for Cruz. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, State of the Race, Trump, Uncategorized

Iowa’s Strange Bedfellows

February 1, 2016

If you haven’t seen my always accurate (except for when I’m wrong) predictions for the caucus results, check this out first.

The old saying says politics makes strange bedfellows.  You never know which two pols will find their interests mutually aligned.  As each candidate spends the next several hours anxiously anticipating the Iowa caucus outcome, the following pairs have reason to root for each other: Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, Iowa, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Iowa: Final Predictions

February 1, 2016

The waiting ends tonight.  My stalling ends now.  For comparison, you can check the Real Clear Politics polling average here and the FiveThirtyEight estimate there.  Traditionally, the final Des Moines Register/Iowa poll is at least as good an indicator as anything else.

All of those measures are currently aligned.  They each suggest victories for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.  If you are reading only to see if I disagree, you can stop now.  I think they will both win.  If you’re curious how, by what margin, and where everyone else falls, keep reading. Continue reading