2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, State of the Race, Trump, Uncategorized

Voters Say #NeverCruz

April 27, 2016

This is not how the Cruz campaign drew it up. Donald Trump was in his home region. He led all recent polls in each of the five states. Cruz is only slightly more popular than cholera in Rhode Island. We’d figured he would struggle there. We expected a dismal result in Connecticut. Delaware was hopeless.

Ok. Whatever. It’s not like a GOP candidate is going to win those states in November. Maryland was a bit unfortunate. It appears he didn’t reach 20% there. With Marco Rubio in the way, Ted finished approximately 20 points behind Trump in neighboring Virginia. He trailed by almost 40 this time, with only the ineffectual John Kasich as an alternative. Continue reading

Advertisements
2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Pennsylvania: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

What. A. Mess. Donald Trump is going to win. Hillary Clinton probably will too. There’s plenty of intrigue and confusion to unpack though. Does Trump clear 50%? He might. Before New York, polls had him in the low to mid 40s. The three taken after show him right around 50.

The whole Trump is just getting a plurality, not a majority argument fades a bit if he clears 50% in all five states today. Though the Keystone State isn’t anti-Trump, it wasn’t showing as a particularly strong location for him for most of the past several months. He didn’t break 30% until early March, 40% until the end of March.

If you are arguing that all but #NeverTrump are coming around to accepting a Trump nomination, if tonight’s results match the most recent polls, it’s convincing evidence. Indiana is more Cruz-friendly than Pennsylvania, but not that, that much. If Trump gets a majority here, Ted has some hearts and minds to change quickly in the Hoosier State. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Maryland: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

Maryland is not a Donald Trump state. It’s neutral at best for him. He’s going to win. The question is by how much. If he gets near or above 50% it’s a very bad sign for anyone trying to stop the runaway train. Before New York, he was in the mid 40s. The one post-NY poll from Gravis Marketing has him at 54%.

If he winds up anywhere near there, it means voters would need to have a change of heart once tonight makes his nomination seem virtually imminent in order to stop him. ┬áHaving Cruz and Kasich strategize, ally, move tactically in any way only matters if Trump isn’t clearing 40% by much in a state that doesn’t favor him.

A strong result would validate polls showing Trump near 50% in California. That’s another neutral-at-best state for The Donald where surveys indicate it doesn’t matter what Cruz and Kasich try to do. Any #Never Trump plan requires three important elements. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Delaware: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

Welcome to Delaware, perhaps the most anonymous state in the union. It received the least polling of any April 26 state. We have one survey from Gravis Marketing on each side. The polls were taken on April 17/18. Not much to work with. Gravis isn’t considered a top-tier pollster and doesn’t include much supporting data.

It appears the New York results may have influenced GOP voters, or at least helped existing Trump momentum. Perhaps Democratic voters are actually more likely to vote for Bernie now that he now appears completely out of contention. At least that’s what Rhode Island and Connecticut polls are hinting at.

The Donald is going to win. He’s going to win by a ton. But by how much? Can he leave 60% in the rear-view mirror? Could Sanders win? It won’t change the final result, but if he wins Rhode Island, Delaware, and Connecticut, it’s an entirely different narrative from a Clinton sweep. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Connecticut: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

Donald Trump is going to win Connecticut. It probably doesn’t matter if Hillary Clinton does. So why should we pay any attention here? The Kasich-Cruz accomodation (Kasich can’t stay on message enough to make it an alliance) requires each partner to hold up their end. Otherwise Trump continues to stomp them.

Cruz is up first, with the responsibility of winning in Indiana. But Kasich needs to at least make a dent in his states. Connecticut will show us if he has any prayer of winning over enough of the upper income, better educated, living next door to Democratic voters he needs in order to keep Trump from 1237 delegates. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Rhode Island: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

Most of the focus today is on Pennsylvania or Maryland. Of all five Republican primaries, Rhode Island distributes delegates most proportionally. There aren’t very many delegates on either side. This is the smallest (geographically) state in the union after all.

I’m going to argue it still matters though. It’s Bernie’s best shot to win today. He could also win elsewhere, but won’t if he doesn’t here. Rhode Island is the one state where non-affiliated voters can participate, always a good thing for him. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, State of the Race, Strategy, Uncategorized

Cruz and Kasich Belatedly Team Up (Too Little, Too Late, or Both?)

April 25, 2016

After more than a month of denial, Ted Cruz is now official partners with John Kasich. The agreement removes the governor from competition in Indiana (May 3), while the senator vacates Oregon (May 17) and New Mexico (June 7). Now that Cruz has joined Kasich in mathematical elimination from gaining the necessary delegates prior to the convention, he’s suddenly up for collaboration.

Even more important is the real possibility Donald Trump will win Indiana. He leads each of the three polls taken in the past week or so. Both Cruz and Kasich are well aware a Trump victory in the Hoosier State gives him a better than even shot at winning on a first ballot.

Though Kasich concentrating elsewhere hardly guarantees a Cruz win (at best he’s in a dead heat with Trump in a one-on-one contest) in Indiana, his odds improve. This should move every possible #NeverTrump vote to Ted’s column. It’s actually better for Cruz than if Kasich dropped out of the race. Continue reading