July 6, 2016
Yes. Donald Trump is either catching up or rebounding from bottoming out. As of the time of this writing, he’s improved a bit in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, moving past a 20% chance of winning on their polls-only measure, getting near 30% with polls-plus, and reaching 25% if the election were today.
If you’re a Trump partisan, a one-in-four chance may seem low, but it’s better than the 1 in 5 from last week. Though they look at this from three different angles, the most important input for FiveThirtyEight is poll results, both at the state and national level. Trump has gained on Hillary Clinton in two important respects. Continue reading