2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Delaware: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

Welcome to Delaware, perhaps the most anonymous state in the union. It received the least polling of any April 26 state. We have one survey from Gravis Marketing on each side. The polls were taken on April 17/18. Not much to work with. Gravis isn’t considered a top-tier pollster and doesn’t include much supporting data.

It appears the New York results may have influenced GOP voters, or at least helped existing Trump momentum. Perhaps Democratic voters are actually more likely to vote for Bernie now that he now appears completely out of contention. At least that’s what Rhode Island and Connecticut polls are hinting at.

The Donald is going to win. He’s going to win by a ton. But by how much? Can he leave 60% in the rear-view mirror? Could Sanders win? It won’t change the final result, but if he wins Rhode Island, Delaware, and Connecticut, it’s an entirely different narrative from a Clinton sweep.

It would qualify as a rebuke from at least part of the Democratic electorate, an indication she still has a bumpy ride into the convention and plenty of work to do in unifying the party. So what should we expect?

Democrats

Bernie Sanders 50.2%

This is a wild-ass guess. Again, one poll. If we choose to believe the single survey, there were plenty of undecided voters. A full sixth of respondents didn’t choose a preference. If we give Bernie three quarters of those confused voters, he can eek out a very narrow victory.

Joe Biden specifically refused to reveal who he chose on his absentee/early voting ballot. Anyone who wants to believe Delaware’s most famous politician in a century or two is ok with them feeling the Bern can go vote for Sanders.

Those who like Bernie better but think Hillary is a stronger nominee can safely choose him without worrying about costing her an important win. The state is more white than not. If Indpendent voters could participate, I’d have more conviction, but think he sneaks out a very narrow win.

Hillary Clinton 49.4%

We’ll hear how this result doesn’t matter. Mathematically it doesn’t. She’s going to win Pennsylvania and Maryland, both of which have more delegates. Anywhere Bernie does win will wind up close enough that they effectively split the delegates. The gap in earned delegates won’t even account for her advantage with super delegates in the same state.

CNN and other networks include announced super delegate preference in their counts. This will allow them to show Hillary with more delegates in a state she loses. Unless Bernie wins a state like this 60/40, it doesn’t indicate anything has happened to her glide path to the nomination.

Her team’s narrative is just too strong. Plus the math thing.

 

Republicans

Donald Trump 64.8%

I think Delaware or West Virginia could wind up as the largest win of the year for Trump. Our single poll from Gravis had him at 55% with Kasich/Cruz combining for 33%. I’m pretty sure Trump has made progress in the week since the poll was completed.

We saw in New York that Trump is capable of picking up late deciding voters when conditions are ideal for him. Neither Kasich nor Cruz invested any energy in Delaware. It’s winner-take-all and Trump looked like a clear winner once his numbers started going up in the region a couple weeks ago.

There is some upper limit, but I wouldn’t fall over if he got all the way to two-thirds of the vote. In a best case (for Team Trump) scenario, he clears 60% in Delaware, Rhode Island and Connecticut, and 50% in Pennsylvania and Maryland.

That would allow Indiana GOP voters to decide if they want to end this.

John Kasich 22.6%

He was slightly ahead of Cruz in the one survey (18/15.) Since then, Cruz got embarrassed in New York and they concocted their fragile alliance. Both of these events would push voters choosing between the two non-Trumps to Kasich.

Their problem is there just aren’t very many of these voters. Expect Kasich to roughly double up Ted’s number, without doing himself much good in the process. There’s no way to spin this as anything other than a yuuge win for The Donald.

Ted Cruz 13.1%

He’ll do ok in Pennsylvania. He might not get embarrassed in Maryland. The others are likely a write-off. Not the night for a speech talking about how his campaign beats Trump from Alaska to Maine.

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