2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Connecticut: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

Donald Trump is going to win Connecticut. It probably doesn’t matter if Hillary Clinton does. So why should we pay any attention here? The Kasich-Cruz accomodation (Kasich can’t stay on message enough to make it an alliance) requires each partner to hold up their end. Otherwise Trump continues to stomp them.

Cruz is up first, with the responsibility of winning in Indiana. But Kasich needs to at least make a dent in his states. Connecticut will show us if he has any prayer of winning over enough of the upper income, better educated, living next door to Democratic voters he needs in order to keep Trump from 1237 delegates.

When discussing the Hillary/Bernie split, analysts and pundits like to focus on demographics. Young voters like him. Older voters like her. He does better with white voters, she does better with African Americans, and often with Latinos. Women prefer her, men prefer him.

But there’s one more split that isn’t always mentioned. Upper income voters prefer Clinton too. The type of Democrats with family incomes of $200,000 and up. When these voters abandoned Republicans in coastal states it helped deepen the shade of blue. It’s not just the GOP striking out with Latinos, women and younger voters.

Even if voters use Hillary’s mathematical dominance in the delegate haul to vote their heart with Bernie, the upper income Connecticut voters are a potential break on this sentiment. If he wins, it means even the voters who would pay up most for his proposals are feeling at least a simmer if not a full Bern.

Prediction Time:

Republicans

Donald Trump 56.6%

I wish we had pre and post-New York polls from the same source. Quinnipiac and Emerson had Trump around 50% before. Gravis Marketing and PPP have him well into the 50s after. Since Trump finished at the upper end of his polling range in New York, I’m inclined to believe this is real.

The voters most likely to hope for a Kasich miracle are here and Maryland. He might have picked up a couple last minute waverers from the deal and the accompanying publicity. Yes, the most commonly played clip was Trump blasting his eating habits, but for #NeverTrump voters, that’s almost a mark of distinction.

Should Trump pull the vast majority of voters choosing between him and the grazing governor, he’ll push 60%. Some of the anti-Trump money resides in Fairfield County Connecticut. They’ll look to see how their neighbors voted as they consider how wide to open their wallets.

John Kasich 30.1%

If Kasich can’t get close to 30 percent here, he’s not going to do himself or #NeverTrump any good going forward. Cruz will take very few, if any voters from him. Anyone picking Ted would almost never support Kasich. Though they gave Connecticut voters zero guidance, it’s obvious to anyone paying attention that Cruz is not the home for #NeverTrump voters looking to take delegates from The Donald.

Kasich needs to grab a congressional district or two if he wants a sign for himself, his donors, #NeverTrump, or anyone who would care that he can compete in virtually exclusively Democratic districts in Northern California.

It may get lost in the general Trump tsunami tonight, but his results in the most upscale part of Connecticut are a big indicator going forward. Kasich has done nothing in the past 24 hours to give them a message to run with.

Ted Cruz 13.0%

The S.S. Cruz is going to take on plenty of water tonight. The consolation is he’s sailing into smoother waters in May. None of the remaining tour stops are anywhere near as inhospitable to his cause as Rhode Island, Connecticut and Delaware.

 

Democrats

Hillary Clinton 51.5%

PPP shows a 2 point race (48/46), so a Sanders win is possible.  I’d rate this the third most likely, behind Rhode Island and Delaware, ahead of Pennsylvania and Maryland (the most unlikely one.)

The state sits right between Massachusetts where she held on and New York where she beat her poll numbers. A chunk of Connecticut is part of the NYC media market. Bernie is making a push here, having spent quality time in the past 48 hours. It’s a coin flip, but this feels more like an Illinois tease, than a Bernie upset.

As soon as Sanders actually gets votes in high income suburbs, I’ll adjust accordingly going forward. He fell short in Illinois because of Hillary’s strength in some upscale Chicagoland suburbs, not because he couldn’t do at least ok with urban minorities.

Bernie Sanders 47.8%

See above. Today serves as a measurement of how many voters will pick Bernie because it’s safe to go with their heart, and if that group also includes many he would tax the hell out of. My guess is being 97% likely to lose isn’t enough to swing Fairfield County to him.

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