2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Republicans, Poll Watch, Trump, Uncategorized

Poll Watch: Trump v. Hillary, Cruz v. Hillary Look Similar

April 30, 2016

One of Ted Cruz’s key arguments is that he can beat Hillary Clinton while Donald Trump is guaranteed to lose to her. It’s easy to see how The Donald could fall short. His overall unfavorable numbers look like George W. Bush after Katrina, Richard Nixon a few weeks before he resigned, or Jimmy Carter when it looked like the hostages would never get out of Iran.

You can speculate Latino Trump supporters might need to enter the witness protection program. He’s taken the traditional GOP gender gap and turned it into the Grand Canyon. Somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of Republicans swear they won’t vote for him in November. Clearly not the safest of nominees. Continue reading

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2016 Republicans, Counting Delegates, State of the Race, Strategy, Uncategorized

Why the Aborted Cruz-Kasich Alliance Wasn’t a Disaster

April 29, 2016

It’s not hard to find reasons to heap scorn on Ted Cruz and John Kasich. A good 35 to 40 percent of Republicans have grave doubts/fears about Donald Trump and neither candidate can consistently defeat him. As we’re constantly reminded, Kasich is 1 for infinity so far. Cruz is proving completely unable to unify the sputtering #NeverTrump movement around him.

On Sunday evening, the Cruz and Kasich campaigns announced an alliance of sorts. Cruz would focus on Indiana, Kasich on Oregon and New Mexico. Immediately and predictably, Donald Trump bashed this confederation of losers, holding it up as an example of corruption and a rigged system, while dismissing the chances of success. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, Poll Watch, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Indiana Poll Watch: Too Close to Call

April 29, 2016

Rumors of Ted Cruz’s demise are somewhat exaggerated. At least in Indiana. His path forward from there is narrow and bumpy, with potential drops off a steep cliff. But for now, we’re concerning ourselves with Hoosier State polls. Cruz needs to survive this one before we worry about his chances elsewhere.

We still have limited data to work with. Real Clear Politics shows a total of four surveys. None were completed before New York voted. Only one was taken after the April 26 Trump tsunami. It’s a one day poll from Clout Research on the 27th.

The Carly announcement was later in the day, we don’t know exactly how many respondents were surveyed before they heard the latest news. Things have happened in the 36 hours between the poll and now. John Boehner called Cruz Lucifer. Indiana Governor Mike Pence endorsed Cruz. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, Counting Delegates, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Let’s Say Cruz Wins Indiana. Then What?

April 28, 2016

Let’s begin by stipulating that if Donald Trump wins Indiana, we don’t have much to talk about except the fall contest against Hillary Clinton. Even if Ted Cruz pulls off a recovery/upset in the Hoosier State on Tuesday, Trump is still the favorite for the nomination, but it’s a definite prerequisite for Ted.

So Cruz needs to win. Great. Then what?

We can make some other assumptions. Though being definitive about anything in 2016 is dangerous, I think the following points are (mostly) safe: Continue reading

2016 Republicans, History, State of the Race, Strategy, Uncategorized

Choosing Carly: A Good Idea Poorly Executed

April 27, 2016

They’re calling Ted Cruz’s decision to announce a running mate his “Hail Carly” move, a last minute, last hope, heave downfield as the clock is running out. Usually when a quarterback throws a Hail Mary pass, it falls short, gets intercepted, or otherwise doesn’t work. There’s a reason they only throw these when they have to.

Before Donald Trump swept every county and every congressional district in five states last night, he was already leading polls in Indiana. He already had his foreign policy speech scheduled for today. It was already evident Cruz would need to win Indiana to survive, hence his deal with John Kasich.

There’s every reason to believe Fiorina was a legitimate option for Cruz, even if he were in better position. She endorsed him several weeks ago and spent more time on the stump with him than any other surrogate. They had plenty of time to take the partnership for a test drive. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, State of the Race, Trump, Uncategorized

Voters Say #NeverCruz

April 27, 2016

This is not how the Cruz campaign drew it up. Donald Trump was in his home region. He led all recent polls in each of the five states. Cruz is only slightly more popular than cholera in Rhode Island. We’d figured he would struggle there. We expected a dismal result in Connecticut. Delaware was hopeless.

Ok. Whatever. It’s not like a GOP candidate is going to win those states in November. Maryland was a bit unfortunate. It appears he didn’t reach 20% there. With Marco Rubio in the way, Ted finished approximately 20 points behind Trump in neighboring Virginia. He trailed by almost 40 this time, with only the ineffectual John Kasich as an alternative. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, April 26 Primaries, Counting Delegates, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Pennsylvania: Final Prediction

April 26, 2016

What. A. Mess. Donald Trump is going to win. Hillary Clinton probably will too. There’s plenty of intrigue and confusion to unpack though. Does Trump clear 50%? He might. Before New York, polls had him in the low to mid 40s. The three taken after show him right around 50.

The whole Trump is just getting a plurality, not a majority argument fades a bit if he clears 50% in all five states today. Though the Keystone State isn’t anti-Trump, it wasn’t showing as a particularly strong location for him for most of the past several months. He didn’t break 30% until early March, 40% until the end of March.

If you are arguing that all but #NeverTrump are coming around to accepting a Trump nomination, if tonight’s results match the most recent polls, it’s convincing evidence. Indiana is more Cruz-friendly than Pennsylvania, but not that, that much. If Trump gets a majority here, Ted has some hearts and minds to change quickly in the Hoosier State. Continue reading