2016 Democrats, Predictions, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Forecasting Idaho: Final Prediction (D)

March 22, 2016

Idaho is an open caucus in a very white state with a bit of a populist streak. It’s receiving less attention than the contests in Arizona and Utah. If there’s a place where Bernie Sanders should win easily today, it’s here.

We’ve seen Ted Cruz thrive in the best states for Ross Perot in 1992. He won all 4 of the top 5 to have voted so far. Sanders has won the two (Maine, Kansas) to have weighed in on the Democratic side, with Idaho and Utah up today. Alaska participates on Saturday.

So far, there’s a good amount of overlap between Cruz and Sanders states. It’s not an exact fit. Bernie won New Hampshire and Vermont easily, while Cruz did poorly. Both won Oklahoma and fell agonizingly short in Missouri.

Cruz won Iowa, Bernie likely won the actual popular vote there. Sanders won Minnesota, Cruz finished ahead of Trump there. You get the idea. Ted did very well in Idaho, a signal Bernie is probably in luck.

We have one bit of data from mid-February, where a poll had Bernie ahead 47/45. Many of these caucus states have limited polling at best, but Sanders has universally done better during the actual vote.

Even if the Brussels attacks push a few leaning or undecided voters to Hillary Clinton, Bernie should still win by a decent margin. As best as we can guess, the final result should look like this:

Bernie Sanders 58.3%

Hillary Clinton 40.4%

 

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