2016 Democrats, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Nebraska: Final Prediction (D)

March 5, 2016

Prepare for a refreshingly brief post. The Democrats are alone in Nebraska today. Republicans do their caucus in May. They have two candidates. We have no polls.

Bernie should perform better in a caucus state. We know he does better when voters are primarily pale. Nebraska borders Colorado, where he won a caucus on Tuesday, and Iowa where he effectively tied one a few weeks ago.

It’s in the same general vicinity as Minnesota (win) and Oklahoma (win). The Clinton campaign doesn’t expect to win. Betting markets have Bernie as an approximately 5 to 1 favorite as of this morning.

Add this up, and you get the following estimate:

Bernie Sanders 62.9%

Hillary Clinton 36.7%

Warren Buffett likes Hillary better. He’s the most important Nebraskan that ever was, with considerable apologies to William Jennings Bryan and Tom Osborne. Not sure the Oracle of Omaha is driving voters to the polls though.

Bryan was the original Bernie. He also ran to succeed an incumbent Democratic president, though nobody will confuse the economic policies of Barack Obama and Grover Cleveland. Also, many aren’t interested in comparing them, so we’ll leave that for another day.

Anyway, the state has a bit of a populist streak, and Bernie cleans up in these sort of caucuses, so he’s going to win by a fair margin.

Hillary hasn’t figured out how to promise her nomination would ensure the Cornhuskers will return to national prominence and contend for a BCS title soon, eliminating her path to victory.

The End.




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