2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 1, Predictions, Uncategorized

Forecasting Massachusetts: Final Prediction

March 1, 2016

Bernie had this one ten days ago. He doesn’t now. Hillary leads in the more recent polls. It’s a perception problem for him. Next door to New Hampshire and Vermont, full of white people, many think he should dominate here.

Instead he’s going to lose. Not all New England states are identical. This is New Hampshire with a heavy dose of Northern Virginia, and a bit of Rhode Island. Bernie did need this to stay anywhere near a winning pace, but a loss isn’t quite the rebuke it seems.

Meanwhile, this is all about The Donald. The Rubio/Kasich battle for second is somewhat interesting. If they combine to match Trump’s total, that counts as momentum for them.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton 53.6%

Following the recent polls here. FiveThirtyEight has things in the same range. When Bernie exceeds expectations or does well, there’s a wide spread of poll results. The Bernie-friendly polls are optimistic, the Hillary-friendly ones aren’t.

In this case, there’s a narrow gap between pollsters like YouGov who normally trend towards him, and the others. She was already 3 points ahead with them in a survey taken before South Carolina.

Hillary managed to defeat Barack Obama in 2008, even with the Kennedy family endorsing him. It’s a strong state for her, with plenty of residual support. The Elizabeth Warren factor helps her too. Her failure to endorse Sanders holds him back.

 

Bernie Sanders 46.2%

There’s no good way to spin this. My original BerniePath had him dropping this contest, so bad as it looks, I’d figured he could win without it. The problem is he had a noticeable recent polling lead, so he can’t lean on the “look how far I’ve come since I started” line.

If he grabs Oklahoma, that makes up for missing out on Virginia, but he needed this one to offset missing on Tennessee. He’s also hardly guaranteed to win Minnesota and Colorado, two must-wins.

Though this will get more attention than the others, it’s not his biggest miss on the day, but it will reinforce Hillary’s status as the clear front runner.

 

Republicans

Donald Trump 46.4%

I’ve got Trump winning all but 2 states today, many by huge margins. Trump Towers Over the Field is the headline to follow. Finding disappointments for him is difficult. The closest I can get is failing to break 50% here.

 

Marco Rubio 21.7%

He’s not closing as strong as he sometimes does and there are enough Independent-minded voters to keep Kasich close to him. When in doubt, just assume Rubio lands in the low 20s.

 

John Kasich 18.4%

Perhaps his best percentage showing of the day, but not enough. If he can’t get over 20% here or in Vermont, how exactly is he viable?

 

Ted Cruz 10.6%

Not a Cruz state. He can always find his 10% under a rock somewhere though.

 

Ben Carson 2.7%

New England is not his place.

 

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