2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, March 1, Poll Watch, Uncategorized

Forecasting Alabama: Final Prediction

March 1, 2016

In the fall, Donald Trump journeyed to Mobile, Alabama and filled most of a football stadium. The estimated 35,000 crowd remains the largest to see a Trump event so far. At the time, this was a curiosity of sorts.

When Trump laps the field today, it will show that was a precursor, not an outlier. Meanwhile, Hillary has this one well in hand. Of all the states, this is probably the highest Trump + Hillary total.

Not a ton to discuss here, but a couple of details to follow:Democrats

Hillary Clinton 72.9%

Think she falls just short of her South Carolina record. Alabama is getting less attention than the Palmetto State did. Figure on slightly lower African American turnout here, so she only wins by 46 instead of 48.

 

Bernie Sanders 26.8%

Proportional delegate rules along with no other candidates to divide the anti-Hillary vote will allow him to pull at least a share the way he did on Saturday. No drama here.

 

Republicans

Donald Trump 42.1%

I’m expecting Trump to slightly over-shoot his average polling numbers. The better the Trump state, the more likely he is to exceed estimates. This is the best Trump state in the South. Think his voters are fired up to turn out. If the brawl of the past week helps him anywhere above all, it’s here.

Marco Rubio 20.4%

A week ago, he had a definite lead on Cruz. If he’d found momentum, he might have even made Trump worry a little. Instead, Marco stalled out, and more recent surveys are finding Cruz dangerously close to him.

With Rubio very momentum dependent and Cruz both good at turning out his voters and wanting to qualify for delegates, this feels very close. FiveThirtyEight projects Rubio to finish a few points ahead, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cruz finish second.

Ted Cruz 19.1%

This is both an incredible disappointment and a chance to beat recent expectations.

Ben Carson 11.1%

A well better than average Carson state. Alabama will give a big win to the candidate who struggled to fully repudiate David Duke and the KKK and perhaps give the one African American candidate in the race his best percentage.

Voters are not a simple as they may appear.

John Kasich 7.3%

Whatever. Michigan can’t get here soon enough for him.

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