2016 Republicans, Strategy, Trump, Uncategorized

Being Corey Lewandowski

March 31, 2016

It’s not easy running a presidential campaign. It’s even harder if you’ve never run one before. Imagine you hadn’t run any campaign since a failed Senate run back in 2002. You’re working for Donald Trump. Whether someone thinks that’s an honor or a nightmare, it’s not low pressure.

You’re in your early 40s, with a wife and enough kids to pack a good sized SUV. Your wife was once married to your best friend. You dated her first, then him, then they got married. Then his airplane flew into the World Trade Center.

People think you’re sharp. Sometimes that means you’re bright, sometimes that you aren’t the easiest to deal with. For a while you worked for Americans For Prosperity. It’s a big fish in the conservative pond. The Koch brothers put up the money and provide some guidance. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Republicans, Poll Watch, Uncategorized

New York Poll Watch: Pre-Wisconsin Placement

March 31, 2016

Especially on the GOP side, Wisconsin results are likely to have at least some impact on New York. Beyond that, candidates will have a full two weeks to reach out to New Yorkers. It’s the longest gap between events since voting began in Iowa (I’m ignoring the Wyoming Democratic Caucus on 4/9 that Bernie will get 80% in.)

While we shouldn’t use the first round of polls to make firm predictions, there’s enough recentish data to give us a starting point. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, Strategy, Trump, Uncategorized

What Trump Shouldn’t Have Said

March 31, 2016

Stop me if you’ve read this before. Somebody has something to say about something Donald Trump said and shouldn’t have. Since the moment he entered the presidential competition, we’ve heard from every imaginable pundit that THIS is the time he went too far.

Often those moments were followed by a jump in the polls or a key primary victory. It’s now 200 stages past the boy who cried wolf. The Donald appears completely impervious to the laws of political gravity, at least on the nomination side of the contest.

I’ve carefully waited to use my “this time Trump went too far” token. Near as I can tell, this is my first post of this nature. After waiting patiently for months, I’m going to take my turn. Here it is: Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 Republicans, Poll Watch, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Wisconsin Poll Watch: Deep Dive

March 30, 2016

Prepare for more conversation about Wisconsin polls than you may prefer. We think it’s the most important contest of the year on the GOP side. The Feingold-Johnson race may determine who controls the Senate.

The newish Speaker of the House is now facing a primary challenge in his home district. Donald Trump called him out at a rally in his hometown of Janesville, WI yesterday. Oh, and it’s a borderline swing state in November too.

The incumbent governor, an ex-candidate for president, just endorsed Ted Cruz. Talking much about any other state before we see what happens here is useless. I’m as curious about New York, Pennsylvania, and contests beyond as the next person, but we need to deal with the Land of the Cheeseheads first. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Cruz is Leading in Wisconsin. What’s Next?

March 30, 2016

Ted Cruz is leading in Wisconsin. It’s too early to declare it a sure thing for him, but he’s ahead. Three of the four most recent polls have him up. Donald Trump is registering in the low 30s, opening up the possibility Cruz could win by a solid margin and take most of the delegates.

Let’s assume for the moment this holds. Figure the final results are Cruz 43, Trump 33, Kasich 24. Again, it’s not a prediction, but it is an extremely possible outcome. It squares with the just released Marquette University poll.

If this, then what? Continue reading

2016 Democrats, 2016 General Election, 2016 Republicans, In the World, Trump, Uncategorized

NATO is Trump’s Next Winning Issue

March 29, 2016

Love him, hate him, or wind up in the increasingly shrinking middle, you have to concede Donald Trump has driven the conversation on the GOP policy side. As Bernie Sanders has yanked Hillary Clinton to the left, Trump has moved some Republican candidates in his direction and forced all to deal with his issues.

He claims he’s the only reason immigration is an issue. That’s false, but he’s right Cruz is mimicking him when he talks about building a wall and deporting illegals. Interestingly, Trump’s first signature issue is the least popular with Republicans.

In some surveys, more than half of GOP voters are in favor of a path to citizenship for those who are here without invitations and have not committed any crimes (beyond their arrival, or visa overstay.) Continue reading