2016 Democrats, Nevada, Predictions, South Carolina, State of the Race, Uncategorized

What are the Odds of Nominee Bernie Sanders?

February 11, 2016

Now that he’s won New Hampshire by a record margin, more and more people are wondering what Bernie’s odds are of winning the nomination.  If you are one of those people, I did some work on the subject about a month ago.  Fortunately for me, it’s increasingly relevant.

The short version is this gets very, very real if he wins Nevada.  The long version is more fun.  Here you go:

Part One shows what he was up against before Iowa and New Hampshire.  Read it for historical perspective.  Bernie is already well ahead of a couple of his insurgent predecessors.

Part Two takes you from Iowa through March 1.  Skip the first several paragraphs if you must, but the section explaining which state characteristics favor him is important.  The March 1 part is fun.  Nobody’s really talking about it yet, except to say that Hillary has a firewall.

There are some very red states voting, ones Ted Cruz is counting on.  But some Bernie-friendly locations are participating too.  Read on to see which states would make the crucial difference.

Part Three assumes Bernie survives March 1 close enough in delegates to catch up before the convention.  You’ll see very quickly why Hillary has already visited Flint and lobbied to have a debate there.

Part Four begins with New York and ends in California.  If you’re willing to suspend any present disbelief, it’s a great ride.

Remember, all of this is contingent on Bernie winning Nevada, or at least making it as confused as Iowa was.

 

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