2016 Democrats, New Hampshire, Poll Watch, Uncategorized

NH Poll Watch: Episode 3 (Going Up, Going Down)

February 5, 2016

Time for a quick check on who is making progress and who is going the wrong way.  We now have post-Iowa, pre-debate polling from multiple sources.  Let’s see how the candidates are registering compared to when the same pollster previously looked at them.

There is still plenty of time to change hearts and minds.  CNN’s new poll says two-thirds of New Hampshire GOP voters have made their minds up.  Well, that’s what their story about it says.  If you dig a little deeper, not so much.  Forty-one percent say they’ve completely decided.  Another 24% are leaning towards a final decision.  The remaining 35% are completely up for grabs.

You can’t get more people on board if others are still jumping off board.  With less than 100 hours left before the vote, don’t expect the falling candidates to pull off a miracle.

Going UP

Marco Rubio

UMass/7News Tracking: 10, 12, 15

ARG: 9, 11, 14

CNN/WMUR: 11, 18

He’s starting to get into range.  Not there yet.  Low 20s should lock up second.  A little further and he could make The Donald sweat a bit.

 

Level or Improving

Jeb Bush

UMass/7News Tracking: 9, 9, 8

ARG: 8, 9, 8

CNN/WMUR: 6, 10

Mixed report.  I have him a little higher due to Jeb pulling his worst poll up a bit.  He’s running ahead of Christie now, so some chance for consolidation in his favor.  Long way to go still.  Had an 18% result from Emerson, but that was pre-Iowa.  We’ll know a lot more when we see their update.  They had no previous poll to measure against.

 

Bernie Sanders

UMass/7News Tracking: 63, 61, 58

ARG: 49, 49, 54

CNN/WMUR: 57, 61

Two polls are going the right way, one the wrong.  Seems like more good news than bad.  Pre-Iowa there was some divergence in the results.  Now, all three pollsters are showing Bernie with a large lead.  The UMass poll is showing Independents are showing signs of greater interest in the GOP primary.

That’s bad for Bernie.  If they assume he has this locked up and decide to play on the other field, he might wind up with a closer result than he’d prefer.  There are no signs of a Clinton victory yet.

 

Ted Cruz

UMass/7News Tracking: 14, 14, 14

ARG: 12, 10, 12

CNN/WMUR: 12, 13

Appears level at worst.  His percentage of committed voters are higher than average.  Good odds of avoiding an embarrassing finish.  Needs to kick it up another gear to finish second.

 

Level or Declining

Donald Trump

UMass/7News Tracking: 38, 38, 36

ARG: 31, 34, 34

CNN/WMUR: 30, 29

He’s not in the clear yet, but no signs of post-Iowa collapse.  His voters are among the most committed.  Even if you figure a few irregular voters won’t turn out, he’ll have trouble with his ground game, and leaning voters fall away at the end, there’s some cushion.

 

Hillary Clinton

UMass/7News Tracking: 30, 32, 36

ARG: 42, 43, 38

CNN/WMUR: 34, 30

One going the right way, two wrong.  She’s bottomed out, and I can’t imagine Hillary getting less than 40% in a two-way race, but there’s no surge yet.

 

John Kasich

UMass/7News Tracking: 9, 7, 7

ARG: 17, 16, 13

CNN/WMUR: 9, 12

Kasich has waxed and waned over the past few months.  A couple weeks ago, he was surging.  May have peaked a little soon.  The air is out of the balloon.  Still, he’s within range of Rubio, in a knot with Cruz and Jeb.

 

Carly Fiorina

UMass/7News Tracking: 3, 3, 3

ARG: 3, 2, 2

CNN/WMUR: 4, 4

Will she get a last look?

 

Going DOWN

Chris Christie

UMass/7News Tracking: 5, 6, 5

ARG: 8, 6, 6

CNN/WMUR: 8, 4

Christie is excellent at doing town halls.  New Hampshire is the place for town halls.  Apparently not enough.

Not time for predictions yet, but we definitely have a few trends.

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