2016 Republicans, March 1, State of the Race, Strategy, Uncategorized

Is Ted Dead?

February 29, 2016

Not only is everybody just about ready to hand the nomination to Donald Trump, but they are dismissing Ted Cruz as the final anti-Trump option. Marco Rubio is getting far more coverage, and his daily insults are more marketable than another round of Cruz droning on about conservative principles.

Rubio has establishment support. Rubio has peer endorsements. Rubio is more likeable. Rubio is getting further under Trump’s skin and doing a better job of putting him on the defensive. The calendar seemingly  becomes more Rubio-favorable as time goes on. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, March 1, Poll Watch, State of the Race, Trump, Uncategorized

Trump is Bernie’s Last, Best Hope

February 29, 2016

It seems like the Bern is being extinguished at every turn. Nine days ago, Nevada entrance polls were indicating an Iowa-like close finish. The possible win/tie became a loss. Then South Carolina. When the candidate says he was decimated, you know it was bad.

Last week, we wondered where Bernie’s voters were hiding. National polls had him relatively close to Hillary Clinton, but state polls matched a bigger overall margin. With Bernie-friendly pollsters like Qunnipiac and CNN/ORC staying away from many states, we speculated the state view might shortchange him. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, March 1, State of the Race, Strategy, Trump, Uncategorized

The Method to Marco’s Madness

February 29, 2016

Since the beginning of time, politicians have tried to win elections. The Rubio campaign appears remarkably unconcerned with actually finishing first. While nominations are determined by delegate counts, you get more of those when you win than when you don’t.

First, they said they didn’t need to win Iowa or New Hampshire. That was already bold, since the first modern primary system GOP race in 1976, a nominee has never failed to win one of the two. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, March 1, Poll Watch, State of the Race, Strategy, Uncategorized

When Does Kasich Exit?

February 29, 2016

I was a John Kasich optimist. He’s had a difficult path from the beginning, but after he finished second in New Hampshire, I could envision how he could pull an inside straight and somehow wind up stealing the nomination.

The odds of this miraculous confluence of circumstances was still in the lower single-digits, but there was a way. Some anti-Trump candidate is going to remain standing. There are too many Republican voters resolutely opposed to him for everyone to give up before he gets near 1237 delegates. Continue reading

2016 Republicans, March 1, Poll Watch, State of the Race, Uncategorized

Trump Approaches GOP Majority

February 29, 2016

CNN/ORC just completed and distributed their monthly national survey of GOP voters. Before we get to the particulars, check this out:

Trump 49%

Rubio/Cruz/Carson/Kasich 47%

Oops. Ted Cruz likes to talk about how he’s ahead of Trump by 16 points in a head-to-head matchup. If CNN is even somewhat accurate, that doesn’t add up. The world in which he had that edge has passed. Same goes for Marco Rubio. Continue reading

2016 Democrats, State of the States, Strategy, Uncategorized

Why Tulsi Gabbard Endorsed Bernie After SC

February 29, 2016

Before we get going here, a note on who Tulsi Gabbard is. She joins Raul Grijalva, Keith Ellison, and Peter Welch as House members who have endorsed Bernie Sanders. This makes her number four out of 188 House Democrats.

As you might have figured, Hillary Clinton has endorsements from the vast majority of the other 184. Grijalva and Ellison are to the far left of those 188. They felt the Bern well before he tied in Iowa and won New Hampshire. While beneficial surrogates, the absence of their support would mean more than having hit. Continue reading

Uncategorized

March 1 Poll Watch: Episode 7 (Up in the Air)

February 28, 2016

Continuing with the final piece of our three part look at Super Tuesday targets….

Part One: Locks for Trump

Part Two: Heavily favors Trump

The Donald is an extreme favorite in three states and a solid to strong favorite in another four. Five more for analysis. He could win all five and wind up with a clean sweep. He could also lose four of the five without going through any mathematical contortions to show how.

Here are some of the most interesting places to watch on Tuesday, in order from most to least likely Trump victories: Continue reading